Job Growth & Unemployment, April 2024
Insights
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Austin is the 7th best performing among the top 50 metros, adding 28,800 jobs, 2.2% growth, in the year ending in March.
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The fastest job growth over the last 12 months occurred in Austin’s other services (7.0%) and education and health services (4.6%) industries.
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Austin’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 3.4% in March, unchanged from February.
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Nonfarm payroll jobs
Austin’s March nonfarm payroll jobs total is up by 28,800, or 2.2%, over the last 12 months according to Friday’s releases of monthly labor market data by the Texas Workforce Commission and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Austin jobs decreased by 1,600 or 0.1% from February to March.
Austin’s year-over-year increase of 2.2% makes it the 7th best performing among the 50 largest metro areas. San Antonio (2.1%) also ranks in the top 10. Houston (2.0%), Fort Worth (1.7%) and Dallas (1.5%) rank 11th, 20th, and 23rd respectively.
For the year ending in March, private sector job growth in the Austin MSA is 1.9%, or 21,500 jobs, with gains across 9 of the 11 major private industry sectors. Total job growth was 2.2% as the government sector, which accounts for 15% of metro area employment, grew by a robust 3.8%. Government employment attained a new peak of 200,100 jobs this month.
Texas saw net private sector job growth of 1.7% with 10 of the 11 private industry groups adding jobs over the last 12 months. Total job growth was higher, at 1.9%, due to strong (3.5%) growth in the government sector. For the nation, private sector job growth was 1.7% for the 12 months ending in March with all but two private industries adding jobs. Overall job growth was slightly higher at 1.9%, due to relatively robust 3.0% government sector growth.
Jobs in March are essentially unchanged (down by 400 or 0.0%) from February in the not-seasonally-adjusted series for Austin. The seasonally adjusted series shows negative job growth with a loss of 1,600 jobs or 0.1%. Seasonally adjusted jobs are essentially unchanged in Fort Worth and Houston, but up in Dallas (0.1%) and San Antonio (0.2%). Statewide, seasonally adjusted jobs are up by 19,100 or 0.1%. Nationally, seasonally adjusted jobs are up from February by 303,000 or 0.2%.
In Austin, all but two of the 11 major private industry sectors added jobs over the last 12 months. Other services is the fastest growing (7.0% or 3,500 jobs) and education and health services (4.6% or 7,000) added the most jobs. Construction and natural resources was also fast growing (4.3% or 3,500). Information saw negative year-over-year growth (-5.4% or -2,900) and professional and business services is unchanged from March 2023.
Statewide, the private industries with the most significant growth are other services (5.2%) and education and health services (3.1%). Information jobs declined by 1.6%.
Nationally, education and health services (4.3%) and construction and natural resources (3.4%) were the leading private sector growth industries over the last 12 months. Information (-1.3%) and transportation, warehousing and utilities (-0.2%) lost jobs.
Over the last 12 months, the net gain for private service-providing industries in Austin is 17,300 jobs, or 1.8%. Employment in goods-producing industries is up by 4,200 jobs or 2.7%. Statewide, private service-providing industries are up 158,100 or 1.6%, and goods-producing industries are up 36,200 or 1.8%.
Labor force, employment & unemployment
We also now have March labor force, employment, and unemployment numbers for Texas and local areas in Texas. The same data for all U.S. metros will not be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics until May 1. In February, Austin had the 23rd lowest rate of unemployment among the 50 largest metros. Despite that middle-of-the-pack ranking, data for March show Austin sustains its superior performance relative to the state and the other major Texas metros.
In March, Austin’s not-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate is 3.5%, which is an increase of 0.2 percentage points above where it was one year ago (3.3%). Rates in the other major Texas metros range from 3.8% in San Antonio to 4.3% in Houston. Houston and San Antonio are unchanged, and Dallas’ and Fort Worth’s rates are 0.2 percentage points higher than last year. The statewide rate is now 4.1%, up from 4.0% in March of last year. The national unemployment rate is 3.9%, up from 3.6% a year ago.
March unemployment rates are 3.4% in Hays and Travis Counties, 3.6% in Williamson County, 3.7% in Bastrop County, and 3.9% in Caldwell County.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Austin’s March unemployment rate is 3.4%, unchanged from February, January and December. The statewide rate is 3.9% and has been 3.9% since last June. The national rate is 3.8%, down from 3.9% in February.
Among Texas’ other major metros, San Antonio is at 3.5%, Dallas and Fort Worth are at 3.7%, and Houston is at 4.2%. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for Texas metros are produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. (The Texas Workforce Commission also produces seasonally adjusted rates for Texas metros, but publication lags the Dallas Fed’s estimates.)
With Austin’s unemployment rate up from one year ago, the number unemployed has also risen. In March 2023, Austin’s number of unemployed was 48,138. Over the last 12 months, the unemployed increased by 3,514 or 7.3%, to 51,652. This is due to a larger increase in the labor force, compared to the number employed. The Austin metro’s civilian labor force (employed plus unemployed) increased by 29,156 persons or 2.0% from one year ago, while persons employed increased by 25,642 or 1.8%.
Texas’ labor force growth (218,349 or 1.5%) over the last 12 months exceeds the growth in the number employed (200,236 or 1.4%). Thus, the number of unemployed increased by 18,113 or 3.0%. Nationally, March civilian labor force is up by 1.2 million or 0.7%, while the number of employed is above the level of a year ago by 615,000 or 0.4%, and 561,000 more people (9.3%) are unemployed.
Conclusion
Recent months have seen Austin’s and Texas’ job growth slow. Austin’s year-over-year (YOY) job growth averaged 5.7% in the first half of 2023, then 3.3% in the second half. That slowing continues with YOY growth averaging 2.4% to date in 2024. Nevertheless, Austin achieved stronger growth than all but 6 of the 50 largest metros for the 12 months ending in March.
For Texas, growth averaged 4.1% in the first six months of 2023, followed by an average of 2.6% for the last six months of the year. As in Austin, the state YOY job growth to date in 2024 falls farther, averaging 2.1%.
In the Texas Employment Forecast following the release of January numbers, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecast that state job growth in 2024 would be 2.2%. Dallas Fed senior business economist Luis Torres commented that “Texas employment growth seems to be returning to its long-term growth rate.” An updated forecast, released on March 22nd and incorporating February’s jobs performance, bumped up the Dallas Fed’s job growth forecast for 2024 to 2.5%. With the release of March estimates and a downward revision of February numbers, the forecast now indicates Texas jobs will increase 2.3% in 2024, a rate slightly above the state’s long term average. In addition to job growth, the forecast is based on projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.
The Texas Workforce Commission and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release April estimates on May 17.
