Job Growth & Unemployment, June 2024
Beverly Kerr, Vice President, Research
Insights
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Austin is the 13th best performing among the top 50 metros, adding 27,600 jobs, 2.1% growth, in the year ending in May.
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The fastest job growth over the last 12 months occurred in Austin’s other services (6.5%) and construction and natural resources (4.6%) industries.
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Austin’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 3.3% in May, improved from 3.4% in April.
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Nonfarm payroll jobs
Austin’s May nonfarm payroll jobs total is up by 27,600, or 2.1%, over the last 12 months according to Friday’s release of monthly labor market data by the Texas Workforce Commission. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Austin jobs increased by 4,100 or 0.3% from April to May.
Austin’s year-over-year increase of 2.1% makes it the 13th best performing among the 50 largest metro areas according to today’s data release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. San Antonio (2.6%) and Houston (2.4%) rank in the top 10. Fort Worth (1.7%) and Dallas (1.6%) rank 17th and 20th respectively.
For the year ending in May, private sector job growth in the Austin MSA is 2.0%, or 22,500 jobs, with gains across 9 of the 11 major private industry sectors. Total job growth was 2.1% as the government sector, which accounts for 15% of metro area employment, grew by a relatively robust 2.6%.
Texas saw net private sector job growth of 2.1% with 10 of the 11 private industry groups adding jobs over the last 12 months. Total job growth was higher, at 2.2%, due to strong (3.1%) growth in the government sector. For the nation, private sector job growth was 1.6% for the 12 months ending in May with all but one private industry adding jobs. Overall job growth was slightly higher at 1.8%, due to relatively robust 2.8% government sector growth.
Jobs in May are up by 5,000 jobs or 0.4% from April in the not-seasonally-adjusted series for Austin. The seasonally adjusted series also shows positive job growth with a gain of 4,100 jobs or 0.3%. Seasonally adjusted job growth is also positive in Texas’ other major metros: by 0.2% in Dallas, Fort Worth, and San Antonio, and by 0.1% in Houston. Statewide, seasonally adjusted jobs are up by 41,800 or 0.3%. Nationally, seasonally adjusted jobs are up from April by 272,000 or 0.2%. 
In Austin, all but two of the 11 major private industry sectors added jobs over the last 12 months. Other services is the fastest growing (6.5% or 3,300 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (4.4% or 6,500) added the most jobs. Construction and natural resources was also fast growing (4.6% or 3,800). The two industries with negative year-over-year growth were information (-4.2% or -2,200) and professional and business services (0.2% or 700).
Statewide, the private industries with the most significant growth are other services (4.9%) and leisure and hospitality (3.5%). Information jobs declined by 0.8%.
Nationally, education and health services (4.2%) and construction and natural resources (2.9%) were the leading private sector growth industries over the last 12 months. Information (-1.4%) lost jobs.
Over the last 12 months, the net gain for private service-providing industries in Austin is 18,100 jobs, or 1.8%. Employment in goods-producing industries is up by 4,400 jobs or 2.8%. Statewide, private service-providing industries are up 201,000 or 2.0%, and goods-producing industries are up 42,300 or 2.1%.
Additional graphs: New/lost jobs by industry for April 2024-May2024 and the trend since 2000 for six large industries and six small industries.
Labor force, employment & unemployment
We also now have May labor force, employment, and unemployment numbers for Texas and local areas in Texas. The same data for all U.S. metros will not be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics until July 3. In April, Austin had the 14th lowest rate of unemployment among the 50 largest metros. Data for May show Austin sustains its superior performance relative to the state and the other major Texas metros.
In May, Austin’s not-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate is 3.2%, improved from 3.3% a year ago. Rates in the other major Texas metros range from 3.5% in San Antonio to 4.0% in Houston. Houston and San Antonio rates are 0.2 percentage points lower than last year, and Dallas’ rate is 0.1 percentage point lower, and Fort Worth is unchanged. The statewide rate is now 3.8%, down from 3.9% in May of last year. The national unemployment rate is 3.7%, up from 3.4% a year ago.
May unemployment rates are 3.1% in Travis County, 3.2% in Bastrop and Hays Counties, 3.3% in Williamson County, and 3.5% in Caldwell County.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Austin’s May unemployment rate is 3.3%, improved from 3.4% in April. The statewide rate is 4.0%, unchanged from April. The national rate is 4.0%, up from 3.9% in April.
Among Texas’ other major metros, San Antonio is at 3.6%, Dallas and Fort Worth are at 3.8%, and Houston is at 4.2%. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for Texas metros are produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. (The Texas Workforce Commission also produces seasonally adjusted rates for Texas metros, but publication lags the Dallas Fed’s estimates.)
With Austin’s unemployment rate ticking down from one year ago, the number unemployed has also declined. In May 2023, Austin’s number of unemployed was 47,256. Over the last 12 months, the unemployed increased by 245 or 0.5%, to 47,011. This is due to a larger increase in the number employed, compared to the labor force. The Austin metro’s civilian labor force (employed plus unemployed) increased by 30,668 persons or 2.1% from one year ago, while persons employed increased by 30,913 or 2.2%.
Additional graphs – Labor force & employment: Texas and United States
Texas’ employment growth (302,732or 2.1%) over the last 12 months exceeds the growth in the labor force (294,765 or 2.0%). Thus, the number of unemployed decreased by 7,967 or 1.4%. Nationally, May’s number of employed is up by 339,000 or 0.2%, while the labor force is above the level of a year ago by 874,000 or 0.5%, and 535,000 more people (9.4%) are unemployed.
Conclusion
Recent months have seen Austin’s and Texas’ job growth slow. Austin’s year-over-year (YOY) job growth averaged 5.7% in the first half of 2023, then 3.3% in the second half. That slowing continues with YOY growth averaging 2.3% to date in 2024. Nevertheless, Austin achieved stronger growth than all but 12 of the 50 largest metros for the 12 months ending in May.
For Texas, growth averaged 4.1% in the first six months of 2023, followed by an average of 2.6% for the last six months of the year. As in Austin, the state YOY job growth to date in 2024 falls farther, averaging 2.1%.
However, the Dallas Fed’s current Texas Employment Forecast is relatively strong, estimating that statewide jobs will increase 2.4% in 2024. In addition to job growth through May, the forecast is based on projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.
The Texas Workforce Commission and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release June estimates on July 19.
