Job Growth & Unemployment, May 2024
Insights
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Austin is the 9th best performing among the top 50 metros, adding 28,900 jobs, 2.2% growth, in the year ending in April.
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The fastest job growth over the last 12 months occurred in Austin’s other services (7.1%) and construction and natural resources (4.3%) industries.
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Austin’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 3.3% in April, improved from 3.4% in March.
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Nonfarm payroll jobs
Austin’s April nonfarm payroll jobs total is up by 28,900, or 2.2%, over the last 12 months according to Friday’s releases of monthly labor market data by the Texas Workforce Commission and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Austin jobs increased by 4,600 or 0.3% from March to April.
Austin’s year-over-year increase of 2.2% makes it the 9th best performing among the 50 largest metro areas. San Antonio and Houston (both 2.4%) also rank in the top 10. Fort Worth and Dallas (both 1.8%) rank 16th and 18th respectively.
For the year ending in April, private sector job growth in the Austin MSA is 2.1%, or 23,200 jobs, with gains across 10 of the 11 major private industry sectors. Total job growth was 2.2% as the government sector, which accounts for 15% of metro area employment, grew by a relatively robust 2.9%.
Texas saw net private sector job growth of 2.0% with 10 of the 11 private industry groups adding jobs over the last 12 months. Total job growth was higher, at 2.2%, due to strong (3.3%) growth in the government sector. For the nation, private sector job growth was 1.7% for the 12 months ending in April with all but one private industry adding jobs. Overall job growth was slightly higher at 1.8%, due to relatively robust 2.8% government sector growth.
Jobs in April are up by 6,800 jobs or 0.5% from March in the not-seasonally-adjusted series for Austin. The seasonally adjusted series also shows positive job growth with a gain of 4,600 jobs or 0.3%. Seasonally adjusted jobs are also positive in Texas’ other major metros: Dallas by 0.5%, Houston by 0.4%, Fort Worth by 0.3%, and San Antonio by 0.2%. Statewide, seasonally adjusted jobs are up by 42,600 or 0.3%. Nationally, seasonally adjusted jobs are up from March by 175,000 or 0.1%.
In Austin, all but one of the 11 major private industry sectors added jobs over the last 12 months. Other services is the fastest growing (7.1% or 3,600 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (3.5% or 5,100) added the most jobs. Construction and natural resources was also fast growing (4.3% or 3,500). Information saw negative year-over-year growth (-4.1% or -2,200).
Statewide, the private industries with the most significant growth are other services (6.0%) and education and health services (3.3%). Information jobs declined by 1.4%.
Nationally, education and health services (4.3%) and construction and natural resources (3.1%) were the leading private sector growth industries over the last 12 months. Information (-1.4%) lost jobs.
Over the last 12 months, the net gain for private service-providing industries in Austin is 19,100 jobs, or 2.0%. Employment in goods-producing industries is up by 4,100 jobs or 2.7%. Statewide, private service-providing industries are up 196,500 or 2.0%, and goods-producing industries are up 37,400 or 1.9%.
Additional graphs: New/lost jobs by industry for Mar. 2024-Apr. 2024 and the trend since 2000 for six large industries and six small industries.
Labor force, employment & unemployment
We also now have April labor force, employment, and unemployment numbers for Texas and local areas in Texas. The same data for all U.S. metros will not be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics until May 29. In March, Austin had the 20th lowest rate of unemployment among the 50 largest metros. Despite that middle-of-the-pack ranking, data for April show Austin sustains its superior performance relative to the state and the other major Texas metros.
In April, Austin’s not-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate is 3.0%, up from 2.9% a year ago. Rates in the other major Texas metros range from 3.3% in San Antonio to 3.8% in Houston. Houston and San Antonio are unchanged, and Dallas’ and Fort Worth’s rates are 0.1 percentage points higher than last year. The statewide rate is now 3.5%, unchanged from April of last year. The national unemployment rate is 3.5%, up from 3.1% a year ago.
April unemployment rates are 2.9% in Hays County, 3.0% in Bastrop and Travis Counties, 3.1% in Caldwell County, and 3.2% in Williamson County.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Austin’s April unemployment rate is 3.3%, improved from 3.4% in March. The statewide rate is 4.0% up from the 3.9% rate it held steady at over the preceding 10 months. The national rate is 3.9%, up from 3.8% in March.
Among Texas’ other major metros, San Antionio is at 3.5%, Fort Worth are at 3.6%, Dallas is at 3.7%, and Houston is at 4.0%. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for Texas metros are produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. (The Texas Workforce Commission also produces seasonally adjusted rates for Texas metros, but publication lags the Dallas Fed’s estimates.)
With Austin’s unemployment rate up from one year ago, the number unemployed has also risen. In April 2023, Austin’s number of unemployed was 42,423. Over the last 12 months, the unemployed increased by 2,207 or 5.2%, to 44,630. This is due to a larger increase in the labor force, compared to the number employed. The Austin metro’s civilian labor force (employed plus unemployed) increased by 31,896 persons or 2.2% from one year ago, while persons employed increased by 29,689 or 2.1%.
Additional graphs – Labor force & employment: Texas and United States
Texas’ labor force growth (303,075 or 2.0%) over the last 12 months exceeds the growth in the number employed (289,249 or 2.0%). Thus, the number of unemployed increased by 13,826 or 2.6%. Nationally, April civilian labor force is up by 1.3 million or 0.8%, while the number of employed is above the level of a year ago by 515,000 or 0.3%, and 748,000 more people (14.5%) are unemployed.
Conclusion
Recent months have seen Austin’s and Texas’ job growth slow. Austin’s year-over-year (YOY) job growth averaged 5.7% in the first half of 2023, then 3.3% in the second half. That slowing continues with YOY growth averaging 2.3% to date in 2024. Nevertheless, Austin achieved stronger growth than all but 8 of the 50 largest metros for the 12 months ending in April.
For Texas, growth averaged 4.1% in the first six months of 2023, followed by an average of 2.6% for the last six months of the year. As in Austin, the state YOY job growth to date in 2024 falls farther, averaging 2.1%.
In the Texas Employment Forecast following the release of January numbers, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecast that state job growth in 2024 would be 2.2%. Dallas Fed senior business economist Luis Torres commented that “Texas employment growth seems to be returning to its long-term growth rate.” The latest update to the forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.6% in 2024, above Texas’ long-term growth rate. The forecast as of May 17 observes that a “broad-based acceleration of job growth in April illustrates the resiliency of the labor market.” In addition to job growth, the forecast is based on projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes. The majority of components of the Texas Leading Index increased from January to April.
The Texas Workforce Commission and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release May estimates on June 21.
